Everyday Murders in the nation Fall Over a Third During the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Data

The average figure of daily murders each month in Mexico has fallen by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per new administrative statistics. Nevertheless, public safety experts have cautioned that murder data could fail to indicate enhanced national safety.

Significant Reduction in Daily Figures

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 homicides a day in last November compared with nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in the previous September. This announcement was shared by the director of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we’ve had during these months is very important,” the President said, adding that last month the lowest amount of homicides were recorded for any November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Official Plan

Fierce drug cartel internal conflicts, alongside the government’s heavily military efforts to take on the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent years. The rate reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure more than four times higher than that of the United States. From that point, murders have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 the previous year. The President has credited her national security plan for an apparently steeper decline in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President declared: “We have a plan, there is oversight of the plan, and we have specific monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The approach functions. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The central elements of Sheinbaum’s security plan include:

  • Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
  • Improving intelligence and investigation capabilities.
  • Greater collaboration between government departments.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Concerns

But, public safety analysts warned that relying on homicide data to assess the situation of improved security was problematic. This is notably true in light of the uptick in other crimes such as people going missing.

“This would be very good information if this were a reduction, but I think we must not just concentrate on the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, excellent,’” commented Cecilia FarfĂĄn-MĂ©ndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be guardedly positive.”

According to the policy analysis organization Mexico EvalĂșa, homicides in total dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year compared with the identical timeframe the previous year. However, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not useful for gauging the context of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico EvalĂșa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the will to properly recognize and classify remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] 
 have the ability to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month averages of daily homicides was similarly problematic because it may hide days when there were especially high levels of killings.

“Using the daily average makes high peaks of violence less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the government can point to the success of its security strategy is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were detained between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious offenses, according to government data. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely politically advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Anger

But despite these measures, Mexico is still plagued by severe violence, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-related violence. Recently there was a notable killing of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the past year.

Weeks after, thousands of young people demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the country to show their frustration at graft and drug violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a manner to create a narrative of security. Politically it’s highly effective, from a social perspective it’s very questionable,” the analyst said.
Robin Wolf
Robin Wolf

A seasoned UK entrepreneur with over a decade of experience in startup consulting and venture capital, specializing in tech innovation.